Don’s Notebook May 10, 2018

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A surprise to the upside for the core CPI could have caused a new downside for the markets but the early trade shrugged off the news.

  • Both the headline and the core missed expectations, rising 0.2 percent for the former and only 0.1 percent for the latter.
  • Year-on-year rates also missed expectations, at 2.5 percent overall and a 1 tenth gain and no gain at all for the core at 2.1 percent.

Initial jobless claims beat expectations, holding at 211,000 in the May 5 week and pulling the 4-week average down 5,500 to a new 49-year low at 216,000.

  • Continuing claims, which follow by a week, are mixed with the April 28 week up 30,000 to 1.790 million but the 4-week average down 22,000 to 1.813 million.
  • The unemployment rate for insured workers is up 1 tenth to what is still a very low 1.3 percent.

Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.4 percent while Japan’s Topix index rose 0.3 percent.

  • In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.2 percent lower in a quiet trading session due to holidays in some parts of the region
  • S&P futures pointed to a slightly higher open, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 2.975 percent and gold was higher.
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Dr. Don Pratl is Director of Trader Development and Education for TradeStation. He joined TradeStation in 2016 after holding similar roles with other online brokerages. Don’s long career in the financial services industry reflects expertise in administering trading and investment strategy programs for retail investors as well as financial services professionals. Since the 1980s, he has held various positions in areas including CBOE trading floor order execution, marketing, sales, personnel management, training and customer service. Don holds series 3, 4, 7 and 63 FINRA licenses, earned his Ph.D. in Organization and Management, and his M.A. and B.A. in Political Science. He has been an occasional adjunct college instructor since 2004 at a range of institutions, teaching undergraduate, graduate and doctoral students using in-class and online formats.