Market Action Summary: 8/13/18

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S&P 500 overview: Wary in late August

  • Resistance at 2850: What cannot go up may go down.
  • Not many bullish catalysts before Labor Day
  • Retest of 2800 may be needed.
  • Outside day on S&P 500 today. Double-doji including Friday.
  • Global weakness = risk for big caps, financials, energy/materials, chips, emerging markets.
  • Global weakness = potentially good for small caps, retail, health-care, REITs.

Geopolitical review: No light at end of tunnel yet

  • Erdogan of Turkey/Xi of China dug in, with little signs of backing down yet. Trump has little reason to back down on either.
  • Iran: Signs of resolve cracking as Ayatollah criticizes government amid protests.
  • Autos seem to be among the biggest losers of global problems.
  • Feroli of JPMorgan: Trump Treasury Dept can still intervene in FX market by selling USD.
  • Italian budget in late September is another issue to watch as Rome cuts GDP forecasts and seeks bigger deficits.

Groups & Charts in focus

  • Pullbacks after bullish gaps: Canada Goose (GOOS), Zogenix (ZGNX).
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) at 200DMA following late-2017 gap up
  • Tenet Healthcare (THC) at 100DMA, near bottom of range. Health-care (XLV) is strongest sector this quarter.
  • Sprint (S) potential turnaround/value story with domestic focus, holding April high.
  • Micron Technology (MU): Beware of bearish triangle, potential for $51 breakdown.
  • Fiber-optics, retailers, smaller e-commerce strong. VIAV upgraded by Needham today
  • Keep an eye on construction firms as less-globally exposed industrials: JEC earnings 8/6, FLR upgraded by UBS today. Nextgov sees more US govt agency spending.
  • Danger zone: Autos, materials, global, energy, mutual-fund operators, home builders (ITB).

Outlooks & calls:

  • MS: Chips at risk as inventories build. (8/9)
  • Reuters: TV stations to benefit from political ads: GTN, SBGI (8/10)
  • Australia central bank (RBA) cuts inflation outlook amid trade disputes. (8/10)
  • NRF: Raises 2018 US retail sales growth forecast from 3.8-4.4% to 4.5%. (8/13)
  • OPEC cuts 2019 global oil demand forecast amid global trade disputes. (8/13)

Options corner:

  • 8/8: Fiat Chrysler (FCAU) Sept 17 puts sold.
  • Vega: ‘V’ is for volatility.
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