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S&P 500 overview
- SPX holding January high amid Dow Transports bullish confirmation.
- 50-hour MA on @ES starting to turn upward.
- Rotation away from megacap techs / FANG is healthy.
Sensing a Bullish Shift in Sentiment
- Rotation: NFLX $$ → ROKU, P. FB → MTCH, CVNA. INTC → AMD.
- Global turbulence may keep Fed at 3 hikes … despite better than expected economy!
- Keep an eye on IPOs, smaller companies into Thanksgiving.
- Retailers repaired in time for the holidays.
- Most recent GDP, ISM manufacturing extremely positive.
- What if stocks can rally despite trade wars?
- 9/10: Hatzius of GS (former doomsayer): Risks now tilted to upside despite trade.
- 9/8: NYT, CNBC cautiously praise Trump economy.
- 9/6: German Ifo Institute raises GDP outlook on private consumption.
- 9/5: Tony Dwyer: Manufacturing strength to lift SPX another 10%.
- 8/30: Wieting of Citi: Investment accelerating, economy getting more competitive.
- 8/28: Todd Gordon: Elliott Wave sees SPX 3500.
Don’s Watch List:
- Global Brass & Copper (BRSS): Climbs after executive sells shares.
- Archer Daniels Midland (ADM): Value-play pullback.
- DR Horton (DHI): Quality home builder.
- Pinnacle Foods (PF): Food stock w/double-digit profit growth.
- Intel (INTC) vs Advanced Micro (AMD): Dueling chip stocks.
Russell’s Watch List:
- TRN, RAIL deep pullbacks amid railroad rally.
- Four Hoursemen of the Retail Post-Apocalypse: LULU, JWN, TGT, WMT
- CMG holding 50DMA pullback.
- MSFT calls for continuation swing. (Did you see our Greek of the Week?)
- New tech “rocket” list: CVNA, ROKU, GLUU, MTCH, P.
- QLYS breakout potential.
- BKNG on wrong side of buy-sell dynamic. Becoming source of funds like FB?
- Nice pullbacks but need to stabilize: ANET, TPR
- IBB pulls back to 50DMA after making new high. Earnings have beat, healthcare strong.
- Small device/bio watch list: VSTM, BLFS, ABUS, VKTX
Events to Watch:
- Wed. 9/12: iPhone launch, Beige Book.
- Thur 9/13: ECB early, China data late.
- Fri 9/14: Retail sales
- Next week: Housing data.
- 9/24 week: FOMC, durable goods, final GDP revision.
- 10/7: Brazilian elections begin
- 10/17: Canada cannabis legalization