This post is a translation of the weekly cryptocurrency analysis by Crypto Lab, a wholly owned subsidiary of Monex Group (Tokyo, Japan). Monex is the parent of TradeStation Group.
Summary
- Bitcoin (BTC) fell sharply this week as attention focused on the prospects of rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
- The Revised Fund Settlement Act and the Revised Financial Instruments and Exchange Act was enacted, including measures to strengthen regulations on cryptocurrency traders.
- Will BTC regain a sense of direction? We’re watching $8,000 as a new resistance level and roughly $7,500 as the downside extreme for now.
This Week’s Market
BTC fell more than 10 percent this week as bullish sentiment returned to U.S. equities.
Some traders view the move as little more than a short-term pullback. However it seems that changes in the stock market, especially in the U.S., had a major impact. BTC fell sharply on May 31 when Washington’s new tariffs against Mexico pushed the dollar lower. This was followed by dovish commentary by the Federal Reserve.
A rebound in stocks then caused the greenback to stabilize against the yen. BTC may have suffered some disruption because of BitMEX maintenance. But overall, it looks like capital that had been moving into cryptocurrencies returned to more traditional assets like U.S. stocks.
Topics of the Week
- The G20 establishes anti money-laundering (AML) measures with a registration of exchanges. (5/31)
- Japan’s Revised Fund Settlement Act changing the term virtual currency to “cryptographic asset”. (5/31)
- Ernst & Young publishes Ethereum (ETH)’s privacy enhancement technology “Nightfall” on Github. (5/31)
- Tether officially announces USDT issue on EOS. (5/31)
- Block.one, an EOS developer, announces the social-media project Voice. (6/1)
- The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) contacts Facebook (FB) about its proposed proprietary currency, FT reports.
- Binance releases a list of restricted-access countries for DEX. (6/2)
- Major retailer Carrefour introduces a blockchain-based tracking system. (6/3)
- Binance tests the pound-sterling stablecoin BGBP. (6/3)
- A subsidiary of OKEx issues the stablecoin USDK linked to the US dollar. (6/3)
- Major banks in Japan, the U.S. and Europe seek immediate settlement of overseas remittances using an electronic-currency concept. (6/3)
- TRON’s founder wins charity auction for lunch with Warren Buffett.
- Microsoft (MSFT) announces VeriSol, a smart-contract verification tool for Azure Blockchain. (6/3)
- BitMEX maintenance suspected as a cause for the drop in BTC’s price. (6/4)
- The U.S. SEC sues the messaging app Kik for its $100 million initial coin offering (ICO) in 2017. (6/4)
- Malaysia registers its first three cryptocurrency exchanges. (6/4)
- Apple (AAPL) adds “crypt kit” for the next version of iOS13. (6/4)
- Coincheck officially launches MONA support. (6/5)
- Rakuten and JR East announce collaboration in a cashless-payment venture. (6/5)
- INDETAIL collaborates with Hokkaido Electric Power to build electric-vehicle (EV) charging stations. (6/6)
- Japanese company Asteria introduces a blockchain-based voting system for its general meeting of shareholders. (6/6)
- Community O raised 100 million yen from XTech Ventures and Ceres. (6/6)
- NEM Foundation announces details of Catapult server’s 4th milestone “DRAGON.” (6/6)
Market Forecast for Next Week
Will BTC regain a sense of direction? Better sentiment in the U.S., with stock prices higher and the dollar lower, will pressure blockchain assets. On the other hand, strong U.S. employment or inflation readings could draw money back to cryptocurrencies.
Either way, it’s unlikely that the market price will again rise sharply toward $9,000 — or drop to its levels before May — until the global market trend becomes clear.
We’re watching $8,000 as near-term resistance. Support is at $7,500.
Next Week’s Topics
- 6/10: Zilliqa (ZIL) to enable smart contracts on its chain.
- 6/10: Stellar (XLM) to conduct a validator vote on protocol updates.
- 6/10-12: Cog X 2019 to be held in London.
- 6/12: Digital Asset Summit to be held in London.
- 6/14-15: UNCHAIN to be held in Berlin.
- 6/15-16: Cosmos Hackathon to be held in Berlin.
